BACKGROUND

Juan Carlos holds M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in experimental condensed matter physics from the University of Texas at Austin where he was a Pre and a Post-Doctoral Fellow of the Robert A. Welch Foundation. Since 1993, he began supporting the Guatemalan Disaster Management Agency (CONRED) as a scientific advisor, and later became a regional consultant in Central America for the German Technical Cooperation Agency (GTZ), the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), US-AID; NGOs such as Acción Contra el Hambre (ACH), Plan Internacional, as well as the Central American Coordination Centre for Natural Disaster Prevention (CEPREDENAC). Efforts have included early warning for different types of hazards, risk assessment, disaster preparedness, and disaster management. His broad knowledge of early warning has allowed UNU-EHS to contribute significantly in projects to strengthen capacities in early warning and disaster-risk management in the Indian Ocean, particularly in Sri Lanka and Indonesia.

WORKING AREA AT UNU-EHS

At UNU-EHS Juan Carlos is responsible for research and capacity building efforts on issues of risk reduction, coping capacities, and early warning. Research areas span factors which contribute to the generation or enhancement of risks in urban and rural areas and means to address them; as well as the systematization of efforts in different regions of the world targeting risk reduction and coping capacities. Additional research areas focus on the identification and systematization of human insecurities associated with various types of hazards and threats. Capacity-building efforts span the design and coordination of training courses, as well as the elaboration of training material. Juan Carlos is focal point for:

• Risk reduction and coping capacities in urban and rural areas with emphasis on landslides.;
• Early warning on hazards, in particular in the case of landslides, and floods in floodplains, deltas, and coastal areas;
• Continued education programs;
• The Urban Training Programme;

PROJECTS

• Voices of Insecurity : a project targeting the identifications of popular perceptions on insecurities, and the degree to which people at risk prioritize different types of insecurities.
• Strengthening early warning capacities in Sri Lanka : a project conducted with Joern Birkmann focusing on rapid vulnerability assessment and people-centred early warning, focusing on early warning in the coastal port of Galle.
• German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System : UNU-EHS is contributing within the Capacity Building Component of this long term project conducted by different German institutions. Together with Torsten Schlurmann, Juan Carlos will support efforts on higher-education, as well as people-centred early warning.

CAPACITY BUILDING – TRAINING

Juan Carlos has organized and contributed to many efforts on capacity building and training in Central America and within UNU-EHS on issues of disaster-risk management. He coordinates the Urban Training Programme, an effort devoted to train mid and senior-level staff members of municipal administrations on issues related to risk management and disaster response in case of floods. The first course targeted participants from seven large cities of the world, and future courses are expected to take place in France and Latin America.

PUBLICATIONS

Juan Carlos has authored publications in fields of surface science, optics, condensed matter physics; and in areas of disaster risk management, risk assessment, and early warning. Publications in the areas of disaster-risk assessment and management.

J.C. Villagran Vulnerability Assessment in the Context of Disaster-Risk, a Conceptual and Methodological Review. To be published in the SOURCE journal of the Institute of Environment and Human Security of the United Nations University in the Spring of 2006.J.C. Villagran Vulnerability Assessment in the Context of Disaster-Risk, a Conceptual and Methodological Review. To be published in the SOURCE journal of the Institute of Environment and Human Security of the United Nations University in the Spring of 2006.

J. C. Villagran (to be published in 2006): Vulnerability Assessment: The Sector Approach. In: J. Birkmann (ed.), Measuring Vulnerability to Hazards of Natural Origin. UNU Press, Tokyo.

J.C. Villagran Quantitative Vulnerability and Risk Assessment in Communities in the Foothills of Pacaya Volcano in Guatemala. Journal of Human Security and Development, Vol. 1, No. 1. Feb 2005.

J. C. Villagrán. Inundaciones, Lineamientos Generales para su Manejo. A publication related to various issues regarding the implementation of risk management strategies in case of floods. Japanese International Cooperation Agency, JICA. (2004).

J.C. Villagrán. Análisis de Riesgos en Municipios de Camotán y San Juan Ermita. Publication for Acción Contra el Hambre, ACH, an international NGO, dealing with the investigation of risks associated to various types of hazards in the municipal districts of Camotán and San Juan Ermita, Guatemala. Currently in print with funding from ACH (2004).

J.C. Villagrán. Evaluación de Riesgos asociados a Diversas Amenazas. A manual which presents and explains methodologies to evaluate risks (hazards and vulnerabilities). Currently in print with funds from ACH. (2004).

E. Grünthal, J. C. Villagrán, Editores. Escala Macrosísmica Europea 1998. Translation to Spanish of the European Macroseismic scale used for evaluation of intensities of earthquakes. (2003).

J.C. Villagrán, Diseño e Implementación de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana en las cuencas Lean, Cangrejal, Perla y San Juan, en Atlántida, Honduras. Internal publication for UNDP-Honduras and COPECO in relation to the design and implementation of early warning systems in 4 basins in the Atlantida Province of Honduras. (2003).

J.C. Villagrán, Análisis Hidrológico y Morfométrico de as cuencas Lean, Cangrejal, Perla y San Juan, en Atlántida, Honduras. Internal publication for UNDP-Honduras and COPECO in relation to the hydrological and morphological analysis of four basins in the Atlantida Province of Honduras to generate risk maps and to design early warning systems. (2003).

J. C. Villagrán. Sistemas de Alerta Temprana. A publication related to early warning systems in Central America, including protocols for operation and maintenance of such systems, sponsored by UNICEF and CEPREDENAC. (2003).

C. Cárdenas, R. Hidajat, R. Jinon, A. P. de Cárdenas, y J. C. Villagrán. Comprehensive Risk MAnagement by Committees and Local Governments. Part 1: Institutional Aspects. GTZ-IADB, (2003). An internal report prepared for the Regional Policy Dialogue of the Interamerican Development Bank as part of a Consultancy carried out by GTZ for IADB. The report analyzes policies at the national and local level within the topic or disaster risk management, including in-depth reports on specific countries such as Colombia, Guatemala, Switzerland, and the Philippines.

H. Hahn, J.C. Villagràn, and R. Hidajat, Comprehensive Risk Management by Committees and Local Governments. Part 3: Indicators and other Instruments for Disaster Risk Management in Communities and Local Governments. GTZ-IADB (2003). An internal report prepared for the Regional Policy Dialogue of the Interamerican Development Bank as part of a Consultancy carried out by GTZ for IADB. The report comprises a novel technique developed to evaluate risks via indicators at the community level, as its application in several communities in specific countries of Latin America.

J. C. Villagrán. Estimación Preliminar de Riesgos asociados a varias Amenazas en Poblados de Guatemala SEGEPLAN CIMDEN. ( 2,002) An magazine elaborated for the General Secretary of Planning of the Presidency of Guatemala, SEGEPLAN, describing vulnerabilities, hazards, and risks associated to four different types of hazards in four provinces of Guatemala. J. C. Villagrán. Reconocimiento Preliminar de Riesgos asociados a varias Amenazas en Poblados de Guatemala SEGEPLAN ( 2,002.) An internal report elaborated for the General Secretary of Planning of the Presidency of Guatemala, SEGEPLAN, describing a technique to evaluate risks in a quantitative fashion using data from national census to evaluate vulnerabilities and hazard maps developed by various national institutions.

J. C. Villagrán. La Naturaleza de los Riesgos, un Enfoque Conceptual. CIMDEN. ( 2,002.) A textbook introducing the concepts of risk and risk assessment, including hazard and vulnerabilities.

J. C. Villagrán. Diagnóstico de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana operados en América Central. Internal report for CEPREDENAC related to the status of early warning systems in operation, and in the planing stages throughout Central America. (2002).

J. C. Villagrán. Análisis de Estudios Básicos y Estrategias para el Manejo de Información en SINAMRED. An internal report for CONRED on the assessment of basic studies related to hazards in Guatemala, as well as guidelines for the establishment of information systems in SINAMRED. Internal Report, CONRED, (2002).

J. C. Villagrán. Sistematización de Sistemas de Alerta y Sistemas de Alerta Temprana en CONRED. A report focusing on the systematization of Alert and Early Warning Systems currently operated by CONRED. Internal Report, CONRED, (2001).

J. C. Villagrán. Sistemas de Alerta Temprana operados por Comunidades en América Central. Article related to community-operated early warning systems throughout Central America. EIRD INFORMA, No. 4, 22 (2001).

J. C. Villagrán. Aportes para la Gestión de Obras para la Prevención de Inundaciones. Publication focusing on the construction of levees for flood prevention, sponsored by the FEMID/ GTZ project (Strengthening of Local Structures and Disaster Mitigation) (2,001).

J. C. Villagrán. Community Early Warning Systems: A Strategy for the Local Management of Disaster Reduction in Central America. ISDR INFORMS, No. 1, 14, (2000).

J. C. Villagrán. Experiencias y Contribuciones para la preparación ante los desastres naturales en América Central. End publication of the RELSAT project, which focused on the implementation of 7 community-operated early warning systems throughout Central America. Sponsored by FEMID-GTZ-ECHO, (2000).

J. C. Villagrán. Design and Implementation of the Early Warning System for the Coyolate River. Internal Report, CONRED, (1998).