The Last Mile-Evacuation research project aims to
develop a numerical tsunami early warning and evacuation information system,
particularly for the low-lying, coastal city of Padang, Indonesia. The city is
severely at risk regarding earthquake-generated tsunamis.
The final report of the research project is published
online (in German) and can be found at
The project has been completed. It was conducted from
May 2007 to July 2010.
The vulnerability assessment provides spatial
information with regard to social aspects to improve tsunami disaster risk
reduction in terms of disaster management efforts and long-term coastal urban
time-specific distribution of various social groups based on the city’s
physical structure and socio-economic characteristics taking into
consideration the tsunami-prone areas (dynamic exposure mapping)
factors that may cause ineffective and delayed evacuation warning response
and root causes for a lack of access to effective early warning
factors that influence people´s evacuation behaviour such as lack of
awareness or knowledge of tsunami risk and preparedness
In the initial phase, a vulnerability framework
containing various vulnerability components was developed based on a literature
study on vulnerability concepts, early warning and evacuation behaviour. The
vulnerability components were divided in main thematic areas according to the
relevant planning purpose and potential end-users such as urban planning,
disaster management and community development. This process was done in an
iterative manner during the course of the research: Criteria for each
vulnerability component were derived by means of a literature study and
participatory consultations with the local stakeholders.
Primary data collection was conducted as a combination
of qualitative approaches such as semi-structured interviews, participatory
rural appraisal (PRA), as well as Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and
quantitative approaches such as questionnaire-based surveys. Secondary data was
collected from existing statistical and spatial data provided by authorities
and derived from remote sensing analysis. Descriptive and multivariate
statistical analysis was employed to test the influence of various variables
for each component of the vulnerability of people exposed to tsunami risk. The
analysis served as a filtering process to select the final sets of indicators.
Spatial analysis using GIS tools was carried out to link the social data with
the spatial structure of the city. Finally, thematic aggregated vulnerability
maps were produced. The applicability of maps and indicators is validated by
means of discussions with the local stakeholders and potential main users.
The Role of UNU-EHS
In the scope of the project, UNU-EHS assessed the
socio-economic vulnerability by identifying vulnerability factors and the
assessment of exposure, susceptibility and coping capacity of population and
critical facilities in the city of Padang with regard to tsunami early warning
and evacuation. Finally, vulnerability indicators and maps were developed as
planning tools for the city. Also, recommendations for
planning evacuation infrastructures and community preparedness strategies were derived.