InterSecTions No. 7/2009 - Sea Level Rise and the Vulnerability of Coastal Peoples by Anthony Oliver-Smith

This paper written by Professor Anthony Oliver-Smith in his capacity as Munich Re Foundation Chair on Social Vulnerability will consider the likely economic, social and cultural impacts on coastal communities by displacement due to climate change induced sea level rise.

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Our most recent scientific assessments indicate that sea level rises of up to one meter are likely in this century. There is the further possibility, in the event of the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, of increases of as much as five meters. Such rises in sea level are extremely threatening in general, but particularly so to the roughly 600 million people (around 10% of the current global population) residing in communities in the low elevation zone (0-10 meters above sea level). However, sea level rise (SLR) will not be uniformly felt, varying largely by such forces as local geomorphology, forms of environmental degradation, adaptive capacity, and levels of development. Moreover, SLR may also combine with other forces and other forms of climate change to bring about further pressures for uprooting and forced migration. The paper will also take into account the secondary risks associated with uprooting and resettlement, particularly within the context of current policy and research frameworks that generally have yet to address the probabilities of large scale forced migration.